Do you know how sometimes you commit to something and then almost immediately wish you hadn't? Well, this weekly review is one of those things! Whilst the tour is on it's 3 weeks of afternoons that are blocked out 100% as I absorb every twist, turn, crash and sprint of the world's best bike race. So when the rest days come along I just find I've got loads of stuff to catch up on, none of which I generally manage to get done completely, and then I add to the load by deciding to do a review the tour which inevitably ends up being a rush job at best! Nevertheless, the tour is, as always, totally absorbing and so it's no great chore to think about it that bit more!
So here we go!
Don't know about you, but I've found this year's race to be a bit short on drama thus far when it comes to the pursuit of the various jersey's. The polka dot (KOM) is all but Rafa Majka's; the green (points) jersey has been tied since the first days by the irrepressible Peter Sagan; the white (young rider) jersey looks to be tied up by Britain's Adam Yates despite the attentions of Louis Meintjes and the yellow (GC) jersey by Team Sky's Chris Froome who looks all but impregnable.
That's not to say that any, if not all of these jersey's aren't going to be fought over in the final week, because they will be; here's how I see them panning out.
The fight for the King of the Mountains will be, I predict, between Rafa Majka (Tinkoff), Thomas de Gendt (Lotto) and Danny Navarro (Cofidis) but, barring any unforeseen disasters or accidents, I think Majka is too strong for the others and will win out with Navarro second.
The points jersey is the one that is now beyond doubt since the departure of Mark Cavendish yesterday to prepare for the Olympic Madison event with young Bradley Wiggins!
The best young rider jersey should remain firmly on the shoulders of Adam Yates (Orica Bike Exchange) who has shown himself well capable of staying with the best climbers in the world the past 2 weeks. Whilst he might not be in shape (this year) to attack his wallflower approach of hanging onto the coattails of the best climbers may well see him reach Paris in a podium position.
And the most prestigious overall winners yellow jersey will I think stay on the shoulders of Froomey who has shown himself to be the man most likely the past 2 weeks. Team Sky are so strong, with Wout Poels and Sergio Henao in particular, showing great fortitude in the climbs, that they have literally rode the sting out of the other GC contenders. The only main GC rider to have shown any force of will to attack so far is the man already in yellow. Everyone talks of Froome's struggles in the final week of his two previous tour victories, but in both of those wins he had attacked on mountain stages in the first two weeks in order to open a big enough gap to cushion any losses in the final weeks climbs. This year however, his major strength has been his racing brain and the courage to put himself on the line in order to seize opportunities as they presented themselves and to take the race to his rivals in a completely novel way to that seen before. Froome's armoury now appears to be replete, whereas previously people had questioned his ability to descend, for one, and his reticence to leave the security of his team-mates shelter for one more, both of which he has ably demonstrated to be no longer the case, and all of this without having put in his customary mountain attack, as yet. Thus I confidently predict that Froome's usual 3rd week difficulties will be minimised, if not totally distanced, this year.
His main rivals, Bauke Mollema (Trek Segafredo), Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Adam Yates and Richie Porte (BMC) have all shown an inability to shake Froome when they have attacked, either due to the relentless pace set by Sky or because they are intimidated by Froome's new found racing strengths this year. Either way, if anyone is going to shift Froome from yellow they need to put themselves on the line and show the same desire to win that Froome, himself, has already demonstrated. However, I think Wednesday will see Froome attacking and putting yet more time into his rivals.
Now I'm out of time because it's already Wednesday and the stage is underway!
Enjoy!
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